Notre Dame NIU’s margin was 28 points in favor of Notre Dame, but Northern Illinois won 16-14 in a stunning upset. Notre Dame’s NIU spread predictions were completely wrong, as NIU defeated the Fighting Irish while outsiders at 28 points. THE Victory 16-14 by Northern Illinois defied Notre Dame NIU’s pregame spread and betting line expectations.
Game result vs spread
- Actual result: Northern Illinois defeated Notre Dame 16-14
- Spread prediction: Notre Dame NIU spread had Notre Dame favored by 28 points
- Propagation result: Northern Illinois covered the spread and won straight away as outsiders at 28 points in the Fighting Irish Huskies betting line
Key factors in the upheaval
- Winning field goal: NIU kicker Kanon Woodill hit one 35 yard field goal with 31 seconds left take the lead
- Notre-Dame turnovers: Quarterback Riley Leonard threw 2 interceptionsimpacting the spread of Notre Dame NIU
- Great pieces from NIU: 83-yard touchdown reception by Antario Brown, challenging Notre Dame’s point spread in Northern Illinois
- Blocked kicks: NIU’s Cade Haberman blocked Notre Dame’s 62-yard field goal attempt as time ran out
Pre-match predictions vs reality
- Prediction models:
- The Dimers model gave Notre Dame a 97% chance to win, influencing the Fighting Irish Huskies betting line
- Data Skrive model predicts Notre Dame victory 42-9
- Actual score: Northern Illinois 16Notre Dame 14contradicting Notre Dame NIU spread
- Total points: 30 points marked, well below forecast over/under 44.5
Betting implications
- Money line: Bettors who took NIU on the moneyline likely received very high payments
- Against the spread (ATS): NIU easily covered as outsiders at 28 points in northern Illinois Notre Dame point spread
- More/Less: The game is on below the total of 44.5 points
Historical context
- MAC vs Top 5 Teams: It was the first ever victory for a MAC team against a top 5 opponent, ending a 0-51 sequence and challenging Notre Dame NIU’s spread
- Notre-Dame in difficulty: The Irish are now 4-4 against unranked teams under coach Marcus Freeman since 2022, affecting future Fighting Irish Huskies betting lines
FAQs
What was Notre Dame NIU’s spread for the game?
Notre Dame was favored by 28 points in the Notre Dame NIU spread.
How has northern Illinois fared with the spread?
Northern Illinois not only covered the 28-point spread, but won the game 16-14, completely challenging Northern Illinois’ point spread to Notre Dame.
What factors contributed to Northern Illinois beating the Fighting Irish Huskies betting line?
Key factors included NIU’s game-winning field goal, Notre Dame turnovers, NIU’s big plays like an 83-yard touchdown reception and NIU blocking Notre Dame’s final field goal attempt.
How accurate were the pre-match predictions compared to the actual result?
The pre-match predictions were wildly inaccurate. The models gave Notre Dame a 97% chance of winning and predicted a 42-9 victory, when the actual result was a 16-14 NIU victory, contradicting Notre Dame’s NIU lead.
What were the implications of this upset for betting on the Fighting Irish Huskies betting line?
Bettors who took NIU on the moneyline likely received very high payouts, NIU was easily considered a 28-point underdog and the game went under the total by 44.5 points, which had a significant impact on all aspects of the Fighting Irish Huskies betting line.